Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Democrats maintain their formidable lead in Presidential Electroal. Vote Simulations

Barack Obama still holds a formidable lead in the presidential electoral vote simulations based on the state by state InTrade prediction market data. From today's results, the Democrats win 99% of the simulations and the median electoral vote count is 340.

There has been little change in the assignment of states to strong and weak categories except that previously weakly Republican Indiana has strengthened for McCain. If instead of the median we look at assigning the states based on the state by state prediction market data, the totals are 364 for Obama to 174 for McCain.

I imagine that the race will still tighten in these last two weeks. It will be interesting to see if that is reflected in the prediction markets.

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