Friday, March 31, 2006

March Madness - Final Four to Championship Statistics

Wow, George Mason, a #11 seed, made it to the final four. I mentioned last week that this has occurred only once in the last 21 years (since 1985). In my statistical observations I have only been using the last 21 years' data because that is when the NCAA tournament moved to 64 games, so that data seems the most relevant. Even though I pointed out that a #11 seed has been in the final four (LSU in 1986), my suggestion was to avoid that pick because it was so improbable. Trust the data, but the interpretation is up to you. (meaning: I take no responsibility for your use of my analysis.)

The above chart shows the frequency distribution of seeds to make it to the final four. Can you see the #11 at one chance in 84? A #11 has never won the championship in the past 21 years, as shown in the chart below.

In spite of all of this impressive charting and number crunching I have no possible chance of winning my March Madness pool, but this year that is just like everyone else out there.

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