Thursday, January 06, 2011

Superbowl winners, Simulations vs the Professionals

I took the odds of a given team winning the superbowl from Yahoo Futures for comparison with my simulation results. My results are in red below.

I match pretty well with and SBGGlobal, but bodog looks too flat and I don't know what Sportsbook was thinking with the high probability for the New York Jets.

The agreement with some of the professionals lends some credibility to the results of my simulations and the roster decisions I will make based on them. I always say I don't know anything about football so I base my work on those who do and the people who set the odds need to know because they are trying to make money doing this.

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