Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Simulations asymptotically approach certainty for Democratic Electoral Vote Win

This week the electoral vote simulation pushes even closer to a certain Democratic electoral vote victory. Of 1000 simulations only 21 have the Democrats with less than 270 electoral votes based on the probabilities from the Intrade prediction markets. The chart below shows the distribution of 1000 simulations. 98% of the simulations yield a Democractic victory, and the median electoral vote count for Obama is 337.

I would guess that the Intrade prediction markets have digested all of the Obama vs. McCain polling data, the financial crisis and any other information about polling in the various states to slide even further over to the Democratic side in each state. This has the interesting effect of putting states that a few weeks ago were strongly Republican over into the strongly Democratic side. According to the Intrade prediction data the Democrats are weakly holding Missouri and North Carolina, never mind previously weak states like Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virgina that are strongly Democratic now, and the Republicans are weakly holding Indiana, as former battleground states become too solid to shake.

This data will be slightly different than the polling data since it is a prediction market site, but I still laugh when CNN or MSNBC tries to pretend we are still in a horse race when it looks like a solid Democratic victory is predicted at this point. I doubt the debate tomorrow will move anything one way or another. Three weeks to election day.

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