Tuesday, October 07, 2008

Democrats running away in electoral college simulations

As the Intrade prediction markets digest the effect of the economy on the popularity of Obama vs. McCain in each of the states, there continues to be a movement towards Obama in many of the states and thus overall in the electoral college simulations.

The results of 1000 simulations using the Intrade prediction data as the probability that a given states electoral votes will be for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate show Obama winning 95% of the simulations. The median electoral vote count is 319 for the Democrats. The table below shows just how far Obama has pulled ahead of McCain in these simulations over the last few weeks.

Formerly String Republican states have gone weak and then over to the Democratic side. All of the states mentioned in previous weeks as being in the middle have moved to the Democratic side and a new crop of formerly Republican states have become up for grabs.

The states that are weakly Democratic now are Florida and Virginia. While now North Carolina has moved to exactly even, and Missouri has moved into the weak Republican category. I suspect the race will even out a little bit more before the end, but this looks like a commanding and perhaps insurmountable lead according to the Intrade prediction data. It will be interesting to see if the debate tonight really changes anything.

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