What is this preserver preserving

Not sure what this PRSEVER virgina license plate driver is preserving. Certainly not the planet with the huge unsustainable Chevy Tahoe that they are driving. I suppose they can afford the gas to drive that thing from Virginia to Lancaster, PA where I spotted it.

Maybe they preserve art. I am sure there is a suitable explanation for their choice of personal license plate that is lost on me.

Architectural Eyesores

James Howard Kunstler posts comments about an architectural eyesore each month. I encourage you to click through all of them. Then you should have a licensed psychiatric professional with you because you will want to kill yourself. His commentary is as insightful as it is biting, with enough obvious truth to it that your vision will darken momentarily.

This one is from January 2008, it is an addition to the Akron Art Museum. There are many more that are just like this or worse.

New Oreo packaging is the best!

The new Oreo cookie package comes with new resealable technology that really is convenient and really works.


Don't just rip open the package at the end like you used to do. Pull on the tab like it directs. We will also see that you won't have to try to cram the whole package into a ziploc bag to keep the cookies fresh.


The SEALED indicator is intact until you open the package.


Pealing back the top of the package allows you to access three rows of Oreos and even sticks to itself to remain pealed back if needed. The white section provides the surface to restick the top of the package to when you seal it back closed to retain freshness.


The SEALED indicator is slit once the package has been opened to warn of tampering.


Once resealed, the Oreos will remain fresh for a long time, much longer than my willpower to not eat them all.

Lepidoptera Love Asters (video)

On Saturday I noticed that either moths or tiny butterflies were flying all over the asters in the front garden bed. I don't know if the video does it justice, but dozens of tiny and colorful moths were flitting off and on the flowers and all around the area. There were the family white butterflies and there were many types of orange spotted winged moths that looked like tiny butterflies.



Here is a list of Lepidoptera that feed on asters. Wikipedia seems to indicate that it is mostly moths that feed on asters rather than butterflies.

Democrats back in the lead again in the Presidential Electoral Vote Simulation

This week's simulation of the electoral votes based on the InTrade Prediction market data once again shows a Democratic victory in 63% of the simulations, with a median Democratic electoral vote count of 281. Today, FiveThirtyEight.com has the Democrats even further ahead with 312 electoral votes and a Democratic victory 74% of the time, but he uses a less transparent simulation using polling numbers for his simulation.

This is an upswing from last week's prediction of a republican victory and probably represents the inTrade prediction markets digesting the bump in popularity that Senator Obama has gotten due to the recent crisis in the financial markets. The candidates seem to trade the same few states back and forth as before. This week Colorado and New Hampshire are weakly Democratic, and Ohio and Virgina are weakly Republican. Nevada is essentially tied in the Intrade data. Losing Nevada would still leave the Democrats with 273 electoral votes.

Intrade has jumped on the visualization bandwagon with a graphic on their front page showing the electoral college results based on their prediction data. They join Yahoo's election dashboard, who was already using the Intrade data, as well as poll data. Truthisall has his own simulation in which he thinks Senator Obama's chances are even better than my results or 538's results. He thinks that there has been systematic election fraud for decades so I invite you to interpret his results yourself. 270towin has their own simulation based on the polls. They predict the Democrats have a median 276 electoral votes and a Democratic win 60.2% of the time.

Evidence of MI6 activity in Delaware

I spotted James Bond's car on the street in Delaware the other day. He brazingly put his double-O number on his license plate. Is the British Intelligence Service allowed to operate on US soil?

When you think about it, James Bond isn't a very good spy (Charles Stross has pointed this out), since he goes around announcing himself (Bond, James Bond) all the time, Just like with this license plate.

Flying the Jolly Roger on talk like a Pirate Day

Ahoy! I quickly put up the Pirate Flag to celebrate Talk Like a Pirate Day. Aarrrr!

I am still inspired from my February visit to Walt Disney World and the Pirates of the Caribbean ride. I even have the song on my iPod.

Yo ho, Yo ho, a pirates life for me.

Drink up, me hearties, yo ho.

Andean Condor at the Brandywine Zoo

Not only was this Andean Condor close to the front of the cage instead of hiding in the back, it had also spread its wings for the best view of these birds I have ever had in my visits to the Brandywine Zoo.

Perhaps it was all of the babies in strollers at the zoo on Sunday thinking, "ooh, birdie", while the Condor was thinking, "food". The cages keep us suitably separate from the animals.

Presidential electoral vote simulation predicts Republican Victory

The Palin Republican Convention bounce seems to be having a continuing effect on the presidential electoral vote simulation based on the Intrade Prediction market data of September 16th. As described earlier, I use the Intrade data to generate a probability for each state of tghe Democrats winning that states electoral votes. I generate 1000 Monte Carlo simulations based on these probabilities.

This week the chart shows that the the Democrats win with more than 270 electoral votes only 46% of the time. This is the first time that the simulations predict the Republicans winning more than half of the time. I think that we could see this coming as the prediction markets and polls continue to digest Sarah Palin's popularity and McCain's bounce. FiveThirtyEight.com shows similar results based on their excellent simulations based on state polls, with only 44.6% of simulations with an Obama victory.

As a prisoner of Excel as my math, simulation and graphing program, I am jealous of Yahoo's new election tracker dashboard that uses either state polls or the Intrade prediction market data to show the electoral vote results. It made me notice something interesting about the Intrade prediction market data. If I just use that data, as Yahoo does, to predict whether a state will go Democratic or Republican, the results is that the Democrats win with 273 electoral votes. But the prediction markets have been shown to represent the collected estimated probability that the players expect for a particular outcome. So while Delaware options are at 95cents (on the chance of $1.00 if the option pays) for the Democrats which makes that a pretty sure bet, Colorado is 55cents Obama vs 47.6cents for McCain which makes that close to even odds. That's why I like my simulation approach better.

The table below (click it for larger and more readable) compiles the simple sum of the prediction market data and then breaks out strong states, those with 60% chance of one of the sides, vs weak states, those with less than a 60% chance for one of the sides. It is there where you can see the closeness of the race.


Remember that in the simulation even Delaware could go for the Republicans 5% of the time. Highly unlikely but possible, especially with the potential error of the data we are using. A state like Colorado could go either way. The progression over two weeks since Sept 2nd doesn't seem to put more electoral votes in play in the weak states (51 to 56), but it does seem to move some weakly Democratic ones to the weakly Republican column. This week the states that are weakly Democratic are Colorado, New Hampshire and New Mexico, while the weakly republican states are Nevada, Ohio and Virgina. On Sept 2nd the states that are weakly Democratic were Colorado, New Hampshire and Ohio, while the weakly Republican states are Nevada, and Virgina. As the pundits have said, Ohio and Virgina are going to be important, and even some Western states are going to have a role to play

Five velociraptors jumping on the bed

Five velociraptors jumping on the bed.
One jumped down and bit off your head!
Momma called the doctor and the doctor said.
You are dead without your head!
(and you don't need a doctor to tell you that)

The Internet is replete with useful quizzes to help quantify the results of situations you will never experience. Here is one:

I could survive for 54 seconds chained to a bunk bed with a velociraptor

Created by Bunk Beds Pedia

Good luck.

(jumping monkeys words)