tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13697567.post1760556722190591265..comments2023-10-18T05:15:26.155-04:00Comments on The Honest Hypocrite: This week's presidential electoral vote simulationRichardhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/18117573567556136072noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13697567.post-28630729394040775822008-09-30T22:49:00.000-04:002008-09-30T22:49:00.000-04:00This is the full link: http://www.geocities.com/el...This is the full link:<BR/> <BR/>http://www.geocities.com/<BR/>electionmodel/2008 ElectionModel.htmRichard Charninhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01079180863426838351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13697567.post-8190536416381427032008-09-30T22:44:00.000-04:002008-09-30T22:44:00.000-04:00I forgot the Election Model link:http://www.geoci...I forgot the Election Model link:<BR/><BR/>http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionModel.htmRichard Charninhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01079180863426838351noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13697567.post-54961191561345734212008-09-30T22:42:00.000-04:002008-09-30T22:42:00.000-04:00The use of Intrade to calculate state win probabil...The use of Intrade to calculate state win probabilities is mathematically incorrect.<BR/><BR/>The probability of Obama winning the election, assuming it is held today, is based on the state win probabilities which are a function of the latest polling spreads.<BR/><BR/>For example, if Obama holds a 51-49% lead in Florida, he has a 69% probability of winning the state. This is the value (0.69) which is compared to a random number (from 0-1) in a 5000 election trial Monte Carlo simulation.<BR/><BR/>Obama won over 99% of the election trials.<BR/><BR/>The Election Model assumes that <BR/>1) the election is held today, 2)it is fraud-free, and 3) the state polls fairly represent the preferences of the electorate.Richard Charninhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01079180863426838351noreply@blogger.com